Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $12.29K
- Potential payout
- $28.91K
- Potential profit
- $16.62K
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $3.9K
Polymarket Trader
ScarletRot
0xf743f416caa37f672e8434a9132f681a8fa0ac84
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.72K
- Realized PnL
- $634.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.32K
- Potential profit
- $22.32K
- User PnL
- -$2.92K
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.37K
- Potential profit
- $20.37K
- User PnL
- -$6.32K
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$600
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.42K
- Potential profit
- $6.42K
- User PnL
- -$1.67K
No position
Will Eric Adams drop out first?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.87K
- Potential profit
- $5.87K
- User PnL
- -$1.82K
Yes position
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.73K
- Potential profit
- $5.73K
- User PnL
- -$1.48K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.31K
- Potential profit
- $4.31K
- User PnL
- -$1.03K
Yes position
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.71K
- Potential profit
- $3.71K
- User PnL
- -$85.08
Yes position
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.37K
- Potential profit
- $3.37K
- User PnL
- -$511.32
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.61K
- Potential profit
- $2.61K
- User PnL
- -$47.42
No position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.46K
- Potential profit
- $2.46K
- User PnL
- -$1.66K
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.66K
- Potential profit
- $1.66K
- User PnL
- -$545.18
Yes position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.58K
- User PnL
- -$205.4
Yes position
Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $998.24
- Potential profit
- $998.24
- User PnL
- -$49.91
Yes position
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $925.26
- Potential profit
- $925.26
- User PnL
- -$671.1
Yes position
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $708.83
- Potential profit
- $708.83
- User PnL
- -$104.31
No position
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $432.76
- Potential payout
- $439.57
- Potential profit
- $6.81
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $23.96
Yes position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $278.38
- Potential profit
- $278.38
- User PnL
- -$53.01
No position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $2.42
- Potential payout
- $5.44
- Potential profit
- $3.02
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $0.84
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.42K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.11K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.21K
Yes position
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23?
Ends Aug 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $44.14K
No position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.17K
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.36K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.25K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.21K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.58K
Yes position
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.07K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.92K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.06K
No position
Was JFK assassination an inside job?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.84K
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.25K
Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.68K
No position
Yoon reinstated as President before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.53K
No position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.8K
No position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.53K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.26K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.78K
Yes position
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.52K
Yes position
US government shutdown in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.47K
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.39K
No position
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.95K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes 97.2% 5,195.57 shares
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No 90% 15,212.95 shares
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No 98.5% 2,900 shares
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No 98.4% 17,050.53 shares
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes 97.5% 25,822.05 shares
- Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No 94% 54,391.12 shares
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes 92% 52,059.11 shares
- Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Yes 2.9% 2,030.34 shares
- Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Yes 87.9% 5,291.12 shares
- Trump out as President in 2025?No 97.5% 30,893.7 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?No 97.6% 26,292.5 shares
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?No 96.4% 7,586.55 shares