No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $17.16K
- Potential payout
- $17.18K
- Potential profit
- $25.77
- User PnL
- $6.07K
Polymarket Trader
azot
0xf75b23f43d73d0873c9b415b8d119c902dbc672e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $23.69K
- Realized PnL
- $45.35K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.79K
- Potential profit
- $3.79K
- User PnL
- -$2K
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$1K
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $10.04
- User PnL
- $171.68
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.12K
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.81
- User PnL
- $120.05
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $4.85
- User PnL
- $73.69
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.7%
- Current value
- $157.53
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $917.74
- Multiplier
- 6.83x
- User PnL
- $57.53
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $847.46
- Potential profit
- $847.46
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.6%
- Current value
- $134.42
- Potential payout
- $724.64
- Potential profit
- $590.22
- Multiplier
- 5.39x
- User PnL
- $34.42
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $611.68
- Potential payout
- $675.89
- Potential profit
- $64.21
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $111.68
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $518.99
- Potential payout
- $632.91
- Potential profit
- $113.92
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $18.99
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $593.99
- Potential payout
- $600.91
- Potential profit
- $6.91
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $94
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $522.23
- Potential payout
- $551.75
- Potential profit
- $29.52
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $22.23
No position
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $530.03
- Potential payout
- $531.36
- Potential profit
- $1.33
- User PnL
- $30.03
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $17.27
- Potential payout
- $181.82
- Potential profit
- $164.55
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.73
Yes position
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $56.8
- Potential payout
- $174.77
- Potential profit
- $117.97
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$43.2
Yes position
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $10.83
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $155.83
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$9.17
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $11.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $88.5
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$8.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.09K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13K
No position
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
Yes position
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $653.1
No position
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $546.23
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $527.03
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $511.34
No position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $479.23
$4000 position
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $464.62
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $439.03
No position
SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $424.47
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $410.49
Yes position
Elon out of Trump administration before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $406.06
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $401.2
No position
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.89
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $370.18
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $369.86
No position
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.53
Yes position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.31
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 59% 847.46 shares
- Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?No 48.9% 204.58 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 31?No 82% 243.9 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?No 54.3% 368.29 shares
- Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes 73.2% 956.01 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes 66.7% 548.92 shares
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No 90.6% 4,348.71 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 28.3% 2,666.66 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Yes 60% 1,666.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 52.7% 3,794.99 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 37% 55.55 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 49.3% 868.18 shares