Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.7%
- Current value
- $278.16
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 4.84x
- User PnL
- -$395.34
Polymarket Trader
Jlivermore
@ElricJesse
0xf77bce26bde16e5c06d5d43faf766fa14890eb5c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.76K
- Realized PnL
- $1.72K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.4%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $278.16
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $395.34
No position
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $262.12
- Potential payout
- $374.45
- Potential profit
- $112.34
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $17.83
No position
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $32.03
- Potential payout
- $44.79
- Potential profit
- $12.77
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $2.02
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $12.15
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $31.33
- Multiplier
- 3.58x
- User PnL
- $2.15
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $18.28
- Potential payout
- $36.94
- Potential profit
- $18.65
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$11.72
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.2%
- Current value
- $22.3
- Potential payout
- $28.53
- Potential profit
- $6.23
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $2.3
No position
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $19.35
- Potential payout
- $28.26
- Potential profit
- $8.9
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$0.65
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $23.09
- Potential profit
- $23.05
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.95
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $11.7
- Potential payout
- $18.87
- Potential profit
- $7.17
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $13.33
- Potential payout
- $17.54
- Potential profit
- $4.21
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $10.61
- Potential payout
- $15.15
- Potential profit
- $4.55
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $10.19
- Potential payout
- $12.66
- Potential profit
- $2.47
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $5.34
- Potential payout
- $8.62
- Potential profit
- $3.28
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $0.34
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $381.07
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.44
No position
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.53
No position
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $172.27
No position
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.22
Yes position
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.98
No position
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.52
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.58
No position
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $34.26
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.87
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.8
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30.17
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.03
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.67
No position
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $24.68
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.18
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.23
Yes position
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.74
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.1
Yes position
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Yes 58% 17.24 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?Yes 58% 8.62 shares
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 58% 8.62 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 23% 43.48 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-26?Yes 89.7% 22.3 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes 53% 18.87 shares
- Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?Yes 53.8% 18.59 shares
- Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No 66% 15.15 shares
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?No 84% 5.95 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 53% 13.33 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 79% 12.66 shares
- Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 67% 14.93 shares