No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$4.24K
Polymarket Trader
Thumber
0xf78dd17e5abbb6f3ef76858061b58891f1766fb5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0.62
- Realized PnL
- $36.87K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 58°F or higher on December 18?
Ends Dec 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $0.57
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.43
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$4.03
Yes position
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- -$2.16
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.95
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$1.45
Yes position
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.02
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.57K
Yes position
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.45K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38K
Yes position
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.31K
No position
Fed rate cut by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16K
Yes position
Fed rate cut by September 18?
Ends Sep 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1K
Yes position
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
TikTok banned in the US in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $995.78
Yes position
Fed rate cut by November 7?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $985.11
No position
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $869.3
Yes position
Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $560.13
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $521.16
No position
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $464.46
No position
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $429.68
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 21?
Ends Mar 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $394.72
No position
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 24?
Ends Mar 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $385.66
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 1?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $373.03
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $360.68
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 18?
Ends Mar 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.75
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 21?
Ends Feb 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $312.06
No position
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5?
Ends Mar 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $303.08
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?No 84.8% 5,000 shares
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on March 7?Yes 41.6% 655.79 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7?No 92.8% 5,000 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 3?No 98.1% 5,000 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 1?No 92.5% 5,000 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on February 28?No 99% 4,873.42 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 27?Yes 98.9% 686.54 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 25?No 98.9% 2,869.46 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 13?No 96.6% 654.83 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 62°F or higher on February 13?Yes 98.6% 1,618.54 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 10?No 99% 5,000 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on February 9?No 95.6% 848.39 shares