Yes position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $26.92
- Potential payout
- $30.59
- Potential profit
- $3.67
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $21.92
Polymarket Trader
nonc
0xf804941b9cef80cb249a99117655315cc74fd2b7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $58.21
- Realized PnL
- $30.24
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.8%
- Current value
- $1.97
- Potential payout
- $15.43
- Potential profit
- $13.46
- Multiplier
- 7.84x
- User PnL
- -$4.03
Yes position
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.5
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $6.91
- Potential payout
- $7.47
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.91
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.9%
- Current value
- $2.41
- Potential payout
- $6.21
- Potential profit
- $3.8
- Multiplier
- 2.57x
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $6.1
- Potential profit
- $1.92
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.3%
- Current value
- $1.19
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $4.69
- Multiplier
- 4.94x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.4%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $5.41
- Potential profit
- $4.41
- Multiplier
- 5.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $0.38
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.63
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.62
Yes position
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $4.35
- Potential profit
- $3.33
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $2.91
- Potential payout
- $4.01
- Potential profit
- $1.1
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $0.91
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.4%
- Current value
- $3.05
- Potential payout
- $3.89
- Potential profit
- $0.84
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $2.05
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $0.52
- Potential payout
- $3.57
- Potential profit
- $3.05
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $2.57
- Potential profit
- $2.35
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.3%
- Current value
- $2.06
- Potential payout
- $2.48
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.33
- Potential profit
- $2.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.28
- Potential profit
- $2.28
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.13
- Potential profit
- $2.13
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $2.04
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.96
- Potential profit
- $1.96
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $1.74
- Potential payout
- $1.82
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.74
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.79
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $1.38
- Potential payout
- $1.64
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.38
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.64
Yes position
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failure?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.59
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.17
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.99
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96
Yes position
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.9
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Multiplier
- 23.81x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?Yes 37% 2.7 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes 72% 1.39 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes 45% 2.22 shares
- Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?Up 87% 1.15 shares
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Yes 23% 4.35 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes 80.1% 1.25 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 18.5% 5.41 shares
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropic 72% 2.85 shares
- Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?Yes 81% 1.23 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.1% 6.21 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17% 5.88 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes 56% 1.79 shares