Ewgeny

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $226.17
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.78K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$7.69

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $59.35
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.44K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$21.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.46K
Potential profit: $1.46K
User PnL: -$18.16

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $13.91
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$6.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $33.27
Potential payout: $899.19
Potential profit: $865.92
Multiplier: 27.03x
User PnL: -$8.9

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $34.13
Potential payout: $802.96
Potential profit: $768.83
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$3.02

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $657.54
Potential profit: $657.54
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 8.9%
Current value: $40.56
Potential payout: $455.7
Potential profit: $415.14
Multiplier: 11.24x
User PnL: -$26.28

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $183.21
Potential payout: $452.38
Potential profit: $269.16
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$16.56

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $350.55
Potential payout: $410
Potential profit: $59.45
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $54.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $377.69
Potential profit: $377.69
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $4.26
Potential payout: $355.1
Potential profit: $350.84
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$33.8

Yes position

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $33
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $267
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $258.97
Potential profit: $258.97
User PnL: -$60

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $248.74
Potential profit: $248.74
User PnL: -$38

Yes position

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $2.42
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $217.58
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$18.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $211.11
Potential profit: $211.11
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $11.31
Potential payout: $205.63
Potential profit: $194.32
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$6.17

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $12.79
Potential payout: $203.02
Potential profit: $190.23
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: -$11.14

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $127
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $73
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$21

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $146.3
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $43.7
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $108.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $167.7
Potential profit: $167.7
User PnL: -$30

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9PM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.41

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 9PM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.58

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.9%
Multiplier: 5.04x
User PnL: $42.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.89

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.79

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.57

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.87

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.78

Up position

Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.46

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.76

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.93

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.73

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 6AM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.54

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.29

Up position

Solana Up or Down - April 27, 9AM ET