STEVJJJ

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $94.44
Potential profit: $94.3
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$7.86

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $36.08
Potential payout: $43.21
Potential profit: $7.13
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $1.08

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $32.99
Potential payout: $40.23
Potential profit: $7.24
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$2.01

No position

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $37.14
Potential payout: $39.4
Potential profit: $2.27
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $5.14

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $37.29
Potential payout: $37.8
Potential profit: $0.51
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.29

No position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $22.98
Potential payout: $23.53
Potential profit: $0.55
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.98

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $19.44
Potential payout: $22.47
Potential profit: $3.03
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $20.11
Potential profit: $19.05
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: -$3.18

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $13.1
Potential profit: $12.97
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$6.38

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $3.28
Potential payout: $11.32
Potential profit: $8.04
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $8.34
Potential profit: $8.23
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$0.64

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $5.6
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.67

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $3.69
Potential payout: $3.84
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $2.21
Potential payout: $2.23
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $1.04

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $2.17
Potential payout: $2.2
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $1.78
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $0.22
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $1.64
Potential profit: $1.62
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.19

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $1.42
Potential profit: $1.32
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $1.4
Potential profit: $1.39
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $1.21
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $1.05
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$0.16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.56

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.14

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $31.13

Yes position

Will Kanye tweet again by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.89

No position

DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.37

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.78

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.8

No position

Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.46

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.44

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.56

No position

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.7

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.58

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.76

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.94

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $9.84

No position

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.79

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.58

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.89

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.72

No position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.34

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?