Goat8524

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $1.93K
Potential payout: $72.94K
Potential profit: $71K
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $1.27K

Yes position

Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $66.85
Potential payout: $9.55K
Potential profit: $9.48K
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$30.57

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $156.49
Potential payout: $9.48K
Potential profit: $9.33K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$95.62

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $44.64
Potential payout: $5.95K
Potential profit: $5.91K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$12.57

Yes position

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $62.11
Potential payout: $4.97K
Potential profit: $4.91K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$80.48

Yes position

Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $16.8
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $4.78K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $54.87
Potential payout: $2.81K
Potential profit: $2.76K
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$1.41

Yes position

Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $19
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $75.75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $24.29
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: $2.29

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $100.23
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $954.78
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$325.52

Yes position

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $10.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $989.5
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $40.38
Potential payout: $973.04
Potential profit: $932.66
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$1.46

Yes position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $966.01
Potential profit: $966.01
User PnL: -$840.43

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $524
Potential payout: $919.47
Potential profit: $395.46
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $113.95

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 15.3%
Current value: $135.57
Potential payout: $888.99
Potential profit: $753.42
Multiplier: 6.56x
User PnL: $26.1

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 78.8%
Current value: $671.67
Potential payout: $852.92
Potential profit: $181.25
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $381.12

Yes position

Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.95
Potential payout: $843.88
Potential profit: $840.93
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$14.17

No position

Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89.1%
Current value: $737.04
Potential payout: $827.2
Potential profit: $90.16
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$40.56

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $27.11
Potential payout: $785.71
Potential profit: $758.61
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$0.89

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $214.13
Potential profit: $214.13
User PnL: -$121.16

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $99.34
Potential payout: $114.85
Potential profit: $15.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $29.49

No position

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $51.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $48.5
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $27.5

No position

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $30.97
Potential payout: $92.44
Potential profit: $61.47
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $0.74

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $842.26

No position

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $560.5

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $541.54

Yes position

Biden drops out in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $539.01

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $534.92

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $477.93

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $394.57

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $231.27

No position

Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.39

No position

Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.35

No position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.35

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.67

Yes position

Kilmar Abrego Garcia released from custody before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $120.06

No position

Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by October 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.21

Yes position

Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.15

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.38

Yes position

Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $74.54

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: $70.96

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 52%
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $68.16

No position

Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.85

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61

Yes position

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.72

No position

Iran leadership change by March 13?