Polymarket Trader

0xF878de6A25CC82A70fdFC79487c30038E9D2c978-1781306730711

0xf878de6a25cc82a70fdfc79487c30038e9d2c978

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $300.05
Realized PnL: $370.97
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $20.63
Potential payout: $812.15
Potential profit: $791.52
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$8.37

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $548.48
Potential profit: $548.48
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $16.75
Potential payout: $263.86
Potential profit: $247.1
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $31.03
Potential payout: $248.21
Potential profit: $217.18
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$18.97

Yes position

Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $4.81
Potential payout: $135.76
Potential profit: $130.95
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $109.22
Potential payout: $118.72
Potential profit: $9.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $9.22

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.32
Potential payout: $97.69
Potential profit: $92.37
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$1.68

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $37.22
Potential payout: $89.68
Potential profit: $52.46
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$18.13

Yes position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $19.18
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $45.83
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $14.18

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $9.38
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $53.13
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.02
Potential profit: $49.02
User PnL: -$25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$5

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $23.29
Potential payout: $36.11
Potential profit: $12.82
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$2.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.47
Potential profit: $32.47
User PnL: -$25

No position

Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $19.37
Potential payout: $31.75
Potential profit: $12.38
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $3.87
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$1.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.36
Potential profit: $6.36
User PnL: -$3.63

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.75

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65.4%
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $48.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.1

No position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $11.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.71

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.21

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.47

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $6.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.69

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $3.56

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38%
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: $2.14

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.73x
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.6%
Multiplier: 2.89x
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.13

No position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.7%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: $0.73

No position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 37.6%
Multiplier: 2.66x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.92

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 31.4% 110.14 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 25.2% 139.54 shares
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

No 41.9% 79.99 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 13.6% 110.14 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Yes 3.8% 525.86 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 21.5% 139.53 shares
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Yes 5.7% 263.86 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 25.3% 366.47 shares
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

No 28.1% 53.38 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

No 13.7% 292.4 shares
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Yes 16% 62.5 shares
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Yes 7.2% 97.69 shares