No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $7.24K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $760
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $510.01
Polymarket Trader
0xf885...5274
0xf8855dadc0e94d49e63ce1149850b60a74dc5274
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $13.01K
- Realized PnL
- $3.98K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $2.83K
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $4.16K
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$64.93
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $455.26
- Potential payout
- $526.32
- Potential profit
- $71.05
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $55.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $478.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $21.75
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $61.74
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $2.42
- Potential payout
- $440.29
- Potential profit
- $437.87
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$35.75
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $28.83
- Potential payout
- $360.32
- Potential profit
- $331.5
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$165.75
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $48.21
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $308.93
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$55.3
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $294.03
- Potential payout
- $294.77
- Potential profit
- $0.74
- User PnL
- $31.1
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $230.86
- Potential payout
- $266.89
- Potential profit
- $36.03
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $6.34
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $87.72
- Potential payout
- $216.6
- Potential profit
- $128.88
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$11.78
Yes position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $9.11
- Potential payout
- $204.82
- Potential profit
- $195.7
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$54.22
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $144.1
- Potential payout
- $190.87
- Potential profit
- $46.76
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $23.89
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $178.69
- Potential payout
- $179.14
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- User PnL
- $6.08
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $157.22
- Potential payout
- $159.37
- Potential profit
- $2.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $37.73
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $132.48
- Potential payout
- $148.02
- Potential profit
- $15.54
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $3.7
No position
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $133.49
- Potential payout
- $141.26
- Potential profit
- $7.77
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.54
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $3.6
- Potential payout
- $124.26
- Potential profit
- $120.66
- Multiplier
- 34.48x
- User PnL
- -$11.31
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $99.7
- Potential payout
- $119.4
- Potential profit
- $19.7
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $19.7
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $118.02
- Potential payout
- $118.67
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- User PnL
- $13.18
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $79.6
- Potential payout
- $101.4
- Potential profit
- $21.8
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $31.94
Yes position
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.4%
- Current value
- $74.27
- Potential payout
- $84.98
- Potential profit
- $10.71
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$3.91
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $26.75
- Potential payout
- $84.94
- Potential profit
- $58.18
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$32.61
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $80.56
- Potential payout
- $81.46
- Potential profit
- $0.9
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.82
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $68.77
- Potential payout
- $78.6
- Potential profit
- $9.83
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $9.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $371.07
No position
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $307.16
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $266.66
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $262.95
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.66
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $258.4
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $256.52
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.57
Yes position
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $241.71
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.61
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.29
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $142.34
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.55
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.54
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.25
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.31
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.43
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.52
No position
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.45
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.14
No position
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.72
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $56.33
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.6
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.84
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No 93% 4.77 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 45.1% 27.18 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 80.3% 105.02 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 20% 708.93 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 69.9% 84.94 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 54% 123.37 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 54% 80.7 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 54% 156.25 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 92% 59.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 92% 46.24 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 64% 6.31 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?No 91% 17.6 shares