Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $209.95
- Potential profit
- $209.95
- User PnL
- -$18.24
Polymarket Trader
Arrowsome
0xf8925905810efc33f5cd9adafdee8586864629c1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $29.06
- Realized PnL
- $107.23
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.6
- Potential profit
- $199.6
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $134.29
- Potential profit
- $134.29
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $107.62
- Potential profit
- $107.62
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $9.52
- Potential payout
- $70.54
- Potential profit
- $61.02
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$12.07
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.65
- Potential profit
- $68.65
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.02
- Potential profit
- $52.02
- User PnL
- -$10.49
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.54
- Potential profit
- $37.54
- User PnL
- -$4.88
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.3%
- Current value
- $5.32
- Potential payout
- $34.88
- Potential profit
- $29.56
- Multiplier
- 6.56x
- User PnL
- $2.32
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $32.19
- Potential profit
- $32.14
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$6.95
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.6%
- Current value
- $3.01
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $25.56
- Multiplier
- 9.48x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $2.02
- Potential payout
- $27.52
- Potential profit
- $25.5
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $26.32
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.76
- Potential profit
- $25.76
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.7
- Potential profit
- $24.7
- User PnL
- -$3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.31
- Potential profit
- $24.31
- User PnL
- -$7.91
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.06
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $22.67
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.99
- Potential payout
- $20.98
- Potential profit
- $18.99
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$5.01
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $18.22
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $3.62
- Potential payout
- $18.63
- Potential profit
- $15.01
- Multiplier
- 5.14x
- User PnL
- $0.62
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $2.44
- Potential payout
- $17.65
- Potential profit
- $15.2
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.54
- Potential profit
- $17.54
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.08
- Potential profit
- $16.08
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.23
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.5
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.89
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.11
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.07
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.67
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.48
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.26
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
Yes position
Will Solana dip to $80 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.32
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.22
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.73
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.55
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Feb 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.24
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ETUp 6% 16.67 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 62% 5.76 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 8.6% 23.26 shares
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.5% 19.05 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.9% 18.35 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.1% 12.42 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17% 11.76 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.2% 19.23 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 8.5% 11.76 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 8.6% 11.63 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.9% 9.17 shares
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.5% 9.52 shares