Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $195
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.81K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$345
Polymarket Trader
guybelownotsmart
0xf8a08a36be9e9505beb1894e748c627338b1c047
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $469.62
- Realized PnL
- $5.32K
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $124.81
- Potential payout
- $960.06
- Potential profit
- $835.25
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$192.01
Yes position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $149.81
- Potential payout
- $730.79
- Potential profit
- $580.98
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$18.31
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.48K
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $585
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $264.64
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.98
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.84
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $161.85
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.99
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.12
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.13
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8
Yes position
Will Biden address the nation on Wednesday?
Ends Jul 24, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Miami address?Yes 15.5% 400 shares
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during Miami address?Yes 37.7% 1,177.13 shares
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during Miami address?Yes 35.6% 275.66 shares
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during Miami address?Yes 34.8% 79 shares
- US strike on Colombia by December 31?Yes 23.1% 245.66 shares
- Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?Yes 12% 275 shares
- Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?Yes 12% 170.91 shares
- US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?Yes 0.1% 999.99 shares
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?Yes 0.4% 1,060.36 shares
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 15.8% 743 shares
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 13% 203.36 shares
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?Yes 33% 960.06 shares