Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $560.36
- Potential payout
- $696.1
- Potential profit
- $135.74
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.36
Polymarket Trader
stop-loss-what
0xf938dcb75ad6efd66e90328f792bb215639b57b8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.41K
- Realized PnL
- $1.02K
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $129.07
- Potential payout
- $549.23
- Potential profit
- $420.16
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$11.55
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $59.06
- Potential payout
- $437.5
- Potential profit
- $378.44
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$10.94
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 39.4%
- Current value
- $146.78
- Potential payout
- $373
- Potential profit
- $226.23
- Multiplier
- 2.54x
- User PnL
- $6.78
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $304.45
- Potential payout
- $351.96
- Potential profit
- $47.51
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $24.45
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $326
- Potential payout
- $326.81
- Potential profit
- $0.82
- User PnL
- $66.37
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $282.6
- Potential profit
- $282.6
- User PnL
- -$140
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $214.31
- Potential payout
- $280.14
- Potential profit
- $65.83
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $3.58
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.69
- Potential payout
- $277.78
- Potential profit
- $277.08
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$49.31
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $36.35
- Potential payout
- $269.23
- Potential profit
- $232.88
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$33.65
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $221.27
- Potential profit
- $221.27
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $119.88
- Potential payout
- $143.57
- Potential profit
- $23.69
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $98.7
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $41.3
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $28.7
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $39.95
- Potential payout
- $135.41
- Potential profit
- $95.47
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$30.05
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $129.28
- Potential profit
- $129.28
- User PnL
- -$101.62
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $44.15
- Potential payout
- $106.38
- Potential profit
- $62.23
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$5.85
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $67.6
- Potential payout
- $95.89
- Potential profit
- $28.29
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$2.4
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $69.58
- Potential payout
- $84.34
- Potential profit
- $14.76
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $78.59
- Potential payout
- $81.4
- Potential profit
- $2.81
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $8.59
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $71.22
- Potential payout
- $81.4
- Potential profit
- $10.17
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 60.7%
- Current value
- $46.44
- Potential payout
- $76.57
- Potential profit
- $30.13
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$3.56
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.86
- Potential profit
- $60.86
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.24
- Potential profit
- $60.24
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $58.82
- User PnL
- -$50
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $595.27
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.45
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.26
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.9
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $27.72
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.79
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.62
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.57
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.55
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.02
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.4
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.98
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.98
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.67
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.11
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.54
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55
No position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.19
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No 90% 35.49 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 79% 88.61 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No 86% 81.4 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 85% 82.35 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 82% 85.37 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 82% 85.37 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 82% 85.37 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 82% 85.37 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 81% 86.42 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No 83% 84.34 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 24% 270.96 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 84% 83.33 shares