Polymarket Trader

sonnet5

0xf94691b707406d9688fe9938f6812e30b9902f54

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $94.14
Realized PnL: $73.59
Win rate: 79.2%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 38.9%
Current value: $94.14
Potential payout: $242.3
Potential profit: $148.17
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: $41.31

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.55
Potential profit: $41.55
User PnL: -$4.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$1

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $18.87
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $10.53
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.29
Potential profit: $9.29
User PnL: -$4.92

Yes position

Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.06
Potential profit: $8.06
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.69
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.67
Potential profit: $3.67
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.64

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.46

Yes position

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.73

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.39

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.74

Yes position

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.13

Yes position

Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $3.21

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.29

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.89x
User PnL: $0.07

Even position

Big Game: Odd/Even Total Points

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?

Yes 25.6% 11.73 shares
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score

99.2% 25.31 shares
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score

14.6% 13.35 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? AND Will England win on 2026-07-11?

18.2% 10.74 shares
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5

18.7% 10.43 shares
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Yes 46% 17.85 shares
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score

16.3% 11.96 shares
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5

14.7% 19.92 shares
Will France win on 2026-07-09? AND Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

14.7% 19.9 shares
Will France win on 2026-07-09? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?

17.1% 17.03 shares
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score

27.1% 10.8 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?

6% 30.79 shares