Polymarket Trader

Nigel364

0xfa2bc333d6d26372e7d1064c6fa61ecf67f2c35d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $567.14
Realized PnL: $6.17K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $14.21
Potential payout: $3.16K
Potential profit: $3.14K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$75.34

Yes position

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $255.95
Potential payout: $2.84K
Potential profit: $2.59K
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$501.79

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $994.5
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $15.71
Potential payout: $952.38
Potential profit: $936.67
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$4.28

Yes position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $18.35
Potential payout: $407.76
Potential profit: $389.41
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$123.38

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $238.09
Potential profit: $238.09
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $21.92
Potential payout: $230.77
Potential profit: $208.85
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$8.08

Yes position

Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.4%
Current value: $34.24
Potential payout: $208.77
Potential profit: $174.53
Multiplier: 6.10x
User PnL: $6.98

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $17.71
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $190.63
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$7.29

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$15.5

Yes position

Ben Pasternak jailed?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $10.71
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $159.29
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: -$3.43

Yes position

Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 14.3%
Current value: $18.58
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $111.42
Multiplier: 7.00x
User PnL: $8.18

No position

Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $120
User PnL: -$5.04

Yes position

Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.35
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $42.51
Potential payout: $84.18
Potential profit: $41.67
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$7.49

Yes position

Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $10.79
Potential payout: $79.91
Potential profit: $69.12
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$9.99

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $23.11
Potential payout: $75.76
Potential profit: $52.65
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$1.89

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $65.7
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$14.03

No position

Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $24.34
Potential payout: $63.21
Potential profit: $38.87
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.93
Potential profit: $49.93
User PnL: -$1.94

No position

Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $2.21
Potential payout: $46.05
Potential profit: $43.84
Multiplier: 20.83x
User PnL: -$4.79

Yes position

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $20.4
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $19.6
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$5.8

No position

Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $24.79
Potential payout: $39.99
Potential profit: $15.19
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $10.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.02K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $958.98

Yes position

Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $457.26

Yes position

Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $449.83

Demoor position

Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $251.17

Yes position

Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $243.63

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $226.59

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.21

Oilers position

Kings vs. Oilers

Ends May 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.47

Up position

Solana Up or Down - November 27, 11AM ET

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.98

Yes position

Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $123.14

Yes position

Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.34

Yes position

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.87

Yes position

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.78

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.7

Down position

Solana Up or Down - November 26, 9PM ET

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.45

Yes position

Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 4PM ET

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.9

Yes position

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week?

Ends May 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 3PM ET

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.93

Down position

Solana Up or Down - November 25, 6PM ET

Ends Nov 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.2

Yes position

James Comey arrested by April 29?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4PM ET

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.28

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

No 15.2% 46.05 shares
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

No 84% 55.55 shares
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?

Yes 8.8% 113.33 shares
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?

Yes 8% 124.76 shares
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?

Yes 3.9% 49.93 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Yes 20.9% 33.57 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Yes 57% 17.54 shares
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Yes 23% 65.22 shares
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Yes 22.5% 66.67 shares
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?

No 99% 13.2 shares
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Yes 88.7% 27.09 shares
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?

No 91.5% 13.2 shares