Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET
Ends Nov 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.48
- Potential profit
- $5.48
- User PnL
- -$5.21
Polymarket Trader
0xfa78...8eaa
0xfa78a3483e90fe94ffbcd21d6365099d08028eaa
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $27.98
- Realized PnL
- $3.57
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Current value
- $2.56
- Potential payout
- $5.13
- Potential profit
- $2.56
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.56
No position
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 97.2%
- Current value
- $4.93
- Potential payout
- $5.08
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $4.91
- Potential payout
- $5.08
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $5.08
- Potential profit
- $4.44
- Multiplier
- 7.94x
- User PnL
- -$4.43
No position
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $5.07
- Potential payout
- $5.08
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will the Prosperity Party (Prosperity) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $4.92
- Potential payout
- $5.05
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $4.94
- Potential payout
- $4.96
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on November 26?
Ends Nov 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 5PM ET
Ends Nov 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,600 and $7,700 on May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Seattle Redhawks position
Oregon State Beavers vs. Seattle Redhawks
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will no qualifying event occur on April 21?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Jeannette Jara win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 RBC Heritage?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will Mads Pedersen win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 11 2025)
Ends Nov 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will “A House of Dynamite” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 11 2025)
Ends Nov 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will Jara win by at least 15%?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 6?
Ends Nov 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
25bps cut position
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?
Ends Nov 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?No 99.5% 4.96 shares
- Will Caleb Wilson be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No 99% 4.98 shares
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 99.9% 4.93 shares
- Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No 99.8% 4.94 shares
- Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the top US Netflix show this week?No 99.9% 4.93 shares
- Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No 99.9% 4.93 shares
- Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 8 million views on day 1?No 99.8% 4.91 shares
- Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No 99.9% 4.99 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No 98.8% 5.05 shares
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Yes 97.8% 5.11 shares
- Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?Yes 99.4% 5.01 shares
- Will Larry David attend UFC Freedom 250?No 99.9% 4.98 shares