Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.22K
- Potential profit
- $30.22K
- User PnL
- -$1.74K
Polymarket Trader
FrenchFlair
0xfa8f091468755d77ec650940b04ab8b82cddb920
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.89K
- Realized PnL
- $8.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.81K
- Potential profit
- $9.81K
- User PnL
- -$280
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $8.89K
- Potential payout
- $9.72K
- Potential profit
- $826.15
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.07K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.45K
- Potential profit
- $2.45K
- User PnL
- -$2.05K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.88K
- Potential profit
- $1.88K
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- User PnL
- -$230
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.34
- Potential payout
- $671.43
- Potential profit
- $671.09
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$46.66
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$108.06
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $451.86
- Potential profit
- $451.86
- User PnL
- -$442.7
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $276.73
- Potential profit
- $276.73
- User PnL
- -$101.92
No position
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $14
- User PnL
- -$12.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $870
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $743.98
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $705.2
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $521.42
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $485.33
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $319
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $269.68
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.25
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.87
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $184.77
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $161.37
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.43
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.91
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.1
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $86.28
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 Six Nations championship?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.91
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.79
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.56
Yes position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.64
Yes position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.92
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.76
Yes position
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 86.3% 1,452.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No 83% 1.21 shares
- OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?No 81% 5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 94% 335.2 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?No 96.8% 800 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 95% 2,900 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes 5.4% 23,073.77 shares
- Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?SpaceX 91.5% 445.96 shares
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes 70% 1,183 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 78% 4,321.79 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 20% 276.27 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Yes 2.9% 9,809.66 shares