Yes position
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $3.9
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $596.1
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $2.7
Polymarket Trader
cryptedgor
0xfb87143e6b890f04ff78487d2660fbbf51fa2fcf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.66
- Realized PnL
- $217.17
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $149.03
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $114.99
- Potential profit
- $114.99
- User PnL
- -$0.69
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.3%
- Current value
- $9.3
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $90.7
- Multiplier
- 10.75x
- User PnL
- $5.8
Yes position
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.34
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $72
- Potential profit
- $72
- User PnL
- -$1.01
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39
- Potential profit
- $39
- User PnL
- -$1.01
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$3.03
Yes position
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $6.2
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $13.8
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$3.8
No position
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2.6
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.99
- Potential profit
- $14.99
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $11
- User PnL
- -$1.09
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Current value
- $0.62
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.38
- Multiplier
- 16.13x
- User PnL
- -$1.38
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$2.8
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$1.3
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.98
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.08
No position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.96
- Potential profit
- $4.96
- User PnL
- -$3.92
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on February 10?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.5
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.98
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.05
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.6
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.8
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.7
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
No position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 14?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.8
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69
No position
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on February 13?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.9
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 10?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.7
Yes position
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.13
No position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.75
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.74
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.49
No position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $2.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No 86% 29.54 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?No 87% 20 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?Yes 9% 10 shares
- Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No 78% 10 shares
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 92% 65 shares
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 85% 45 shares
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 84% 20 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 83% 56 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes 96.8% 47.46 shares
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?Yes 0.6% 114.99 shares
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?No 65% 20 shares
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?No 75% 20 shares