Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $911.1
- Potential profit
- $911.1
- User PnL
- -$49.84
Polymarket Trader
Smorkins
0xfbb8d1d90d39de7357304c78433fefd3f1571fe9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $628.86
- Realized PnL
- $3.72K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.8%
- Current value
- $102
- Potential payout
- $799.99
- Potential profit
- $697.99
- Multiplier
- 7.84x
- User PnL
- -$87.09
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $699.99
- Potential profit
- $699.99
- User PnL
- -$68
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.7%
- Current value
- $213.51
- Potential payout
- $376.62
- Potential profit
- $163.12
- Multiplier
- 1.76x
- User PnL
- -$6.45
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $6.46
- Potential payout
- $331.16
- Potential profit
- $324.7
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$13.63
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.4%
- Current value
- $24.66
- Potential payout
- $262.3
- Potential profit
- $237.64
- Multiplier
- 10.64x
- User PnL
- -$22.69
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $218.49
- Potential profit
- $218.49
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $208.75
- Potential profit
- $208.75
- User PnL
- -$38.56
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.3%
- Current value
- $64.52
- Potential payout
- $206.15
- Potential profit
- $141.63
- Multiplier
- 3.19x
- User PnL
- -$7.21
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $105
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $11.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $188.1
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $10.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189.3
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.97
- Potential profit
- $199.97
- User PnL
- -$57.99
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Current value
- $27.65
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $112.35
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- $4.97
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $19.11
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $120.89
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.71
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $9.86
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $130.14
- Multiplier
- 14.20x
- User PnL
- -$5.26
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.6%
- Current value
- $26.83
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $78.17
- Multiplier
- 3.91x
- User PnL
- $3.64
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $11.03
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $93.98
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$37.22
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.1
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$46.1
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $3.3
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $96.7
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- -$9.9
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $79.99
- Potential profit
- $79.99
- User PnL
- -$23.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$24.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48.55
- Multiplier
- 34.48x
- User PnL
- -$11.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $718.89
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $288.24
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $234.83
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $223.48
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.69
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $147.77
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Dec 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.27
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 4AM ET
Ends Dec 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.3
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 9AM ET
Ends Dec 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.05
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.07
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.44
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?Yes 23.7% 22.59 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.9% 942.51 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 5.3% 60 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?Yes 40.4% 100 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Yes 18.3% 245.3 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Yes 13.8% 17 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?Yes 40% 37.91 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?Yes 1.6% 100 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 20% 42 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 48% 123.81 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes 63% 5 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 45.9% 11.58 shares