0xfbC485eE52e3314662ED589E2Ee276D7d9765F8A-1777992296648

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $6.61
Potential payout: $777.78
Potential profit: $771.17
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.39

No position

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $13.54
Potential payout: $255.39
Potential profit: $241.86
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $192.5
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $9.72
Potential payout: $149.56
Potential profit: $139.84
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$7.28

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $7.13
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $132.88
Multiplier: 19.65x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $6.52
Potential payout: $130.33
Potential profit: $123.81
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$3.48

Yes position

Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $7.68
Potential payout: $103.07
Potential profit: $95.39
Multiplier: 13.42x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $3.37
Potential payout: $96.15
Potential profit: $92.79
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$6.63

Yes position

Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $80.45
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $2.88
Potential payout: $84.75
Potential profit: $81.87
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.29
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.96

Yes position

Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $61.69
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$9.19

Yes position

Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $10.87
Potential payout: $57.19
Potential profit: $46.32
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $54.55
Potential profit: $48.55
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $3.88
Potential payout: $47.64
Potential profit: $43.76
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $11.13
Potential payout: $37.72
Potential profit: $26.59
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $9.58
Potential payout: $29.93
Potential profit: $20.35
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $4.59
Potential payout: $29.63
Potential profit: $25.04
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$3.41

Yes position

Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $10.27
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $16.76
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $2.72
Potential payout: $25.05
Potential profit: $22.33
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $25.01
Potential profit: $24.38
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$5.38

No position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $19.52
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $0.89
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $4.52

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 41.6%
Current value: $8.22
Potential payout: $19.77
Potential profit: $11.54
Multiplier: 2.40x
User PnL: $4.92

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.33

No position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.48

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.93

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.74

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.6

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.76

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.97

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.99

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Multiplier: 28.17x
User PnL: $12.36

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Multiplier: 28.17x
User PnL: $10.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.28

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.42

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.52

Yes position

Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.35

No position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.88

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.89

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $4.45

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.71

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.34

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95

Yes position

Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET