Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $17.9
- Potential payout
- $5.97K
- Potential profit
- $5.95K
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$982.09
Polymarket Trader
smap
0xfbce50ee50e56c5a82fb923a498d6cdd43f730be
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3K
- Realized PnL
- $9.02K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.97K
- Potential profit
- $1.97K
- User PnL
- -$1.2K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $1.78K
- User PnL
- -$782.05
Yes position
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $125.62
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.45K
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- -$374.64
Yes position
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $138.1
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $978.87
- Potential payout
- $978.87
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $378.87
Yes position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $790.37
- Potential profit
- $790.37
- User PnL
- -$300
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $625
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $225
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.57
- Potential payout
- $571.43
- Potential profit
- $568.86
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$197.43
Yes position
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $37.27
- Potential payout
- $465.91
- Potential profit
- $428.64
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$62.73
Yes position
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $74.71
- Potential payout
- $426.93
- Potential profit
- $352.21
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$25.29
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $337.97
- Potential profit
- $337.97
- User PnL
- -$266.33
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $312.5
- User PnL
- -$100
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
No position
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $955.66
Yes position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $739.73
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $589.84
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $478.72
Yes position
300+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?
Ends Mar 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $347.38
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $302.53
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.4
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $282.05
Yes position
700+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $234.68
Yes position
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.89
No position
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.47
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.13
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.19
No position
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.1
Yes position
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.36
No position
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.69
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.18
No position
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $88.12
Yes position
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.39
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.51
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.59
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 29.3% 7,355.93 shares
- Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?Yes 92% 444.44 shares
- Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?Yes 45% 444.44 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?No 69.6% 1,448.63 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Yes 32% 312.5 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 61.7% 6,478.74 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 99.6% 4,320.48 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?No 43.9% 1,781.22 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 57% 877.19 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 68% 2,941.18 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 58% 1,379.31 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No 64% 625 shares