Polymarket Trader

discombobulated-chicken

0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $14.52K
Realized PnL: $29.01K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $8.99K
Potential payout: $9K
Potential profit: $13.5
User PnL: $1.25K

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 67.6%
Current value: $4.73K
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $2.27K
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $2.62K

No position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.6K
Potential profit: $5.6K
User PnL: -$1.72K

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $41.66
Potential payout: $5.56K
Potential profit: $5.51K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$180.54

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $157.48
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.84K
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$93.67

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $37
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.96K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$1.41K

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$15.95

Yes position

Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$990

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $14.4
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.19K
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$36.54

No position

Trump kiss by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$528.44

Yes position

US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $57.86
Potential payout: $723.27
Potential profit: $665.41
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$198.93

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $644.28
Potential profit: $644.28
User PnL: -$169.72

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $498.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $1.5
User PnL: $73.5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$21.6

No position

FDA approves Vepdegestrant?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255
Potential profit: $255
User PnL: -$2.55

No position

Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.36
Potential profit: $155.36
User PnL: -$29.75

Yes position

Will Vance Bostic win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Will Chi Ossé win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.71
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.48

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.13K

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.01K

Yes position

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83K

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76K

No position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.67K

Yes position

Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6K

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.59K

Yes position

Trump kiss by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25K

Lucknow Super Giants position

Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23K

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

No position

Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $988.91

No position

Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $938.72

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $895.5

No position

Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $817.1

Yes position

FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $781.78

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $754.23

No position

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $658.28

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $622.58

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $620.11

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $578.33

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $552.49

No position

Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $535.69

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $532.3

No position

Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $516.28

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes 89% 1,000 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 53% 499.99 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 48.9% 1,000 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 26.7% 500 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 31% 14 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 24.7% 500 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 73% 1,000 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 72% 1,000 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 16% 1,000 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 79% 76 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 73% 423.84 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Yes 36.7% 1,999.99 shares