0xfbdf9f72b58d5712c98b46de87a944b520693256

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $73.39
Potential payout: $11.29K
Potential profit: $11.22K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$2.13K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $2.34K
Potential payout: $6.23K
Potential profit: $3.89K
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $340
Potential payout: $800.01
Potential profit: $460
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $144.81

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $395
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$9.2

No position

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $198.73
Potential payout: $331.21
Potential profit: $132.49
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: $2.62

No position

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $208.58
Potential payout: $279.98
Potential profit: $71.39
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $3.8

Yes position

Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $63
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $137
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $60.59

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $165
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $35
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $7.6

Yes position

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $81.26
Potential payout: $157.79
Potential profit: $76.53
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $78.8

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $93.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.55

No position

Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $86.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $91.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $81.49
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $18.51
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $2.49

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $94.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $5.8
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $5.7

Yes position

Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.66

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $91.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $82
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $18
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $94.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.29

Yes position

Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $94.95
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.29

Yes position

Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $89.96
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.95

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $42
Potential payout: $68.3
Potential profit: $26.3
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $56.06
Potential payout: $64.07
Potential profit: $8.01
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $31.36
Potential payout: $38.01
Potential profit: $6.65
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $37.27
Potential profit: $34.47
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.93

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $1.42K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $798.27

Perry position

PA-10 election: Stelson (D) vs. Perry (R)

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.6

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Implied probability: 62.5%
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $148.08

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $85.4

No position

China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.51

No position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.45

No position

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.66

Yes position

Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.91

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $47.82

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

No position

Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.15

Yes position

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $30.5

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $28.79

Up position

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 13?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.08

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.1%
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $23.12

Yes position

Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22.39

No position

Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.63

Down position

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 26?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.74

Up position

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 2?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?