No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $998
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $2
- User PnL
- $40
Polymarket Trader
Cheddar-Factory
0xfbff8d110ff1a34e486d791b389ea4d5f8cc5830
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.92K
- Realized PnL
- $15.24K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$249
No position
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $553.5
- Potential payout
- $558.25
- Potential profit
- $4.75
- User PnL
- $25.3
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $327.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $172.5
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $42.5
Yes position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $499.25
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$119.25
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $256.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $43.5
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $52.5
No position
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.9%
- Current value
- $275.7
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $24.3
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $299.55
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- User PnL
- $32.55
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $125.6
- Potential payout
- $126.68
- Potential profit
- $1.08
- User PnL
- $19.19
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.6%
- Current value
- $79.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $20.45
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $5.35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4K
Yes position
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05K
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
Yes position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $740.04
No position
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $660
No position
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $641.84
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $573.2
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $547.03
Yes position
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $485.69
No position
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475.44
No position
U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $464
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.68
No position
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $308.61
No position
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300
No position
Will Oatly Group (OTLY) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $299.93
No position
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.88
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $282
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $280
No position
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $276.33
No position
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.1
No position
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240
Yes position
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February?
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $236
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?No 94.6% 558.25 shares
- Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionYes 2.4% 41.75 shares
- Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m?Yes 99.7% 429.81 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?No 95.8% 1,000 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No 96.8% 360.25 shares
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 42% 300 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?Yes 1.9% 700 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?Yes 2% 45.27 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 18?Yes 2% 500 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No 97.9% 864.71 shares
- Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?No 99.6% 408 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No 99.5% 353 shares