No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $11.34K
- Potential payout
- $13.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.77K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.69K
Polymarket Trader
marchonnow
0xfc04e014f3e520191b5f456ca6a47f93b0a14f75
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.42K
- Realized PnL
- $16.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $8.1K
- Potential payout
- $9.05K
- Potential profit
- $949.74
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $938.3
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.3%
- Current value
- $2.05K
- Potential payout
- $2.59K
- Potential profit
- $536.9
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $613.81
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $894.91
- Potential payout
- $944
- Potential profit
- $49.09
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $576.41
Yes position
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $921.06
- Potential profit
- $921.06
- User PnL
- -$391.38
Yes position
Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $302.74
- Potential profit
- $302.74
- User PnL
- -$102.47
Yes position
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $93
- Potential profit
- $93
- User PnL
- -$15.32
Yes position
Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.3
- Potential profit
- $46.3
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $19
- User PnL
- -$16.45
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$12
Y
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $13.65
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $1.35
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $5.8
- Potential profit
- $4.9
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$4.44
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.08
- Potential profit
- $5.08
- User PnL
- -$1.58
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $1.28
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.73
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.97
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $2.13
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.88
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Yes position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
No position
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $3.18
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.83
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.6%
- Current value
- $1.63
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.37
- Multiplier
- 3.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $2.03
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.98
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $3.58
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.42
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $4.13
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.88
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.81K
No position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.12K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $988
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $985
No position
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $693.28
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $556.4
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $537.28
Yes position
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $472.94
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $449.62
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $431.98
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $430
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $415.3
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $386
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $375.46
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304.72
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.4
No position
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $217.38
No position
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.5
No position
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.78
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.18
No position
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.48
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 52% 5 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Yes 38.3% 5 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 80% 588.97 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 97.1% 488.31 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 80% 1,342.08 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 97.1% 804.85 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 97.7% 260 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 17% 74.11 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 97.8% 11 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 80% 2,236.69 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 98.1% 948.4 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 79% 145 shares