Yes position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$59.8
Polymarket Trader
nesciemus
0xfc370d760d49e2497a221adafba57cc42009cc37
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $141.36
- Realized PnL
- $10.8
- Win rate
- 63.6%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $86.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $4.5
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $6.9
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $68.1
- Multiplier
- 10.87x
- User PnL
- -$14.47
No position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $18.2
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.8
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $2.97
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.03
- Multiplier
- 6.73x
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $9.25
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $9.25
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$2.2
No position
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $3.58
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.42
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $4.71
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.29
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US-China trade deal before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.5
No position
DeepSeek R2 released before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.3
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
DeepSeek V4 released before May?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6
No position
China x Philippines military clash by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Y
Yes position
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.6
Y
Yes position
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.64
Y
Yes position
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 9.5% 15 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 9.5% 10 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 9.7% 20 shares
- Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?No 69% 5 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 38% 25 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 38% 5 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 38% 10 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 38% 5 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 38% 5 shares
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?No 90% 5 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 82% 50 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 82% 20 shares