Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.7%
- Current value
- $908.88
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $291.12
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $224.88
Polymarket Trader
0xfcf4e98F6E8cF7a161DcD13865f834090A58527f-1767455799465
0xfcf4e98f6e8cf7a161dcd13865f834090a58527f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.28K
- Realized PnL
- $2.78K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $896.69
- Potential payout
- $979.99
- Potential profit
- $83.3
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $132.3
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $245.67
- Potential payout
- $271.46
- Potential profit
- $25.79
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $22.5
Y
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $233.39
- Potential payout
- $249.62
- Potential profit
- $16.23
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $29.46
No position
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $160
- User PnL
- -$7.94
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $469.63
Yes position
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.52
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $149.52
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $138.62
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.96
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.6%
- Multiplier
- 2.19x
- User PnL
- $99.05
No position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.67
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $90.17
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.13
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36
No position
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.01
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $28.75
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.26
Yes position
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $16
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $9.15
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.51
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.44
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- $4.01
Yes position
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 82% 214.62 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 79.9% 35 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 16.2% 499.81 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 50% 2,400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 78% 979.99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 51% 1,103.61 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 57% 700 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 48% 10 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Yes 8% 556.77 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 50% 205.1 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 49% 40.76 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 49% 407.21 shares