Polymarket Trader

surf

0xfd2b117412a698f322b0cd18d6827dad262b8e50

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $0
Realized PnL: $1.78M
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07M
Potential profit: $1.07M
User PnL: -$174.82K

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $249.57K
Potential profit: $249.57K
User PnL: -$15.02K

No position

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $212.58K
Potential profit: $212.58K
User PnL: -$7.2K

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200K
Potential profit: $200K
User PnL: -$22K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $198.21K
Potential profit: $198.21K
User PnL: -$13.68K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $168.57K
Potential profit: $168.57K
User PnL: -$42.6K

Bengals position

Patriots vs. Bengals

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $165.04K
Potential profit: $165.04K
User PnL: -$37.45K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $159.05K
Potential profit: $159.05K
User PnL: -$19.88K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.98K
Potential profit: $147.98K
User PnL: -$7.46K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $138.58K
Potential profit: $138.58K
User PnL: -$1.41K

Raiders position

Raiders vs. Texans

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.86K
Potential profit: $137.86K
User PnL: -$15.16K

Commanders position

Eagles vs. Commanders

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $122.87K
Potential profit: $122.87K
User PnL: -$8.12K

Buccaneers position

Buccaneers vs. Bills

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121K
Potential profit: $121K
User PnL: -$35.39K

Titans position

Texans vs. Titans

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $118.44K
Potential profit: $118.44K
User PnL: -$11.19K

No position

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.12K
Potential profit: $107.12K
User PnL: -$22.71K

Jets position

Jets vs. Jaguars

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.32K
Potential profit: $105.32K
User PnL: -$6.93K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.08K
Potential profit: $105.08K
User PnL: -$3.48K

Giants position

Packers vs. Giants

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.67K
Potential profit: $102.67K
User PnL: -$26.34K

Raiders position

Raiders vs. Eagles

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.7K
Potential profit: $101.7K
User PnL: -$5.12K

Packers position

Eagles vs. Packers

Ends Nov 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.64K
Potential profit: $86.64K
User PnL: -$43.16K

Giants position

Giants vs. Patriots

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.82K
Potential profit: $83.82K
User PnL: -$18.96K

Cowboys position

Cowboys vs. Broncos

Ends Nov 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.16K
Potential profit: $82.16K
User PnL: -$27.48K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.55K
Potential profit: $81.55K
User PnL: -$2.58K

Yes position

Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80.94K
Potential profit: $80.94K
User PnL: -$8.29K

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.96K

Texans position

Bills vs. Texans

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.72K

Seahawks position

Rams vs. Seahawks

Ends Dec 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.2K

Broncos position

Giants vs. Broncos

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.55K

Panthers position

Panthers vs. Falcons

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.87K

Patriots position

Patriots vs. Ravens

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.75K

Panthers position

LAR vs. Panthers

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.94K

Bears position

Bears vs. Commanders

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.18K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.1K

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.85K

Panthers position

Panthers vs. Packers

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.5K

Yes position

Yoon arrested by Friday?

Ends Jan 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.91K

Chargers position

Steelers vs. Chargers

Ends Nov 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.45K

Dolphins position

Bills vs. Dolphins

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.93K

Cowboys position

Chiefs vs. Cowboys

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.32K

Trail Blazers position

Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.8K

Packers position

Packers vs. Lions

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.83K

Bengals position

Steelers vs. Bengals

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.02K

Bengals position

Bengals vs. Ravens

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.39K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.36K

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.61K

Patriots position

Patriots vs. Buccaneers

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.93K

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. Jaguars

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.89K

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.45K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 31.7% 10,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 32% 10,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 37% 2,028.61 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 17% 5,312.6 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 16.7% 10,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 14.9% 10,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 15% 6,072.88 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 15% 10,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Yes 6% 5.04 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Yes 6% 40,637.55 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

No 22.9% 10,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Yes 14% 10,000 shares