0xfe64...a76e

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $9.46
Potential payout: $4.73K
Potential profit: $4.72K
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: $4.73

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $10.03
Potential payout: $436.18
Potential profit: $426.15
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: $6.82

Yes position

Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.61
Potential payout: $214.44
Potential profit: $212.84
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $4.67
Potential payout: $150.61
Potential profit: $145.94
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Ends Aug 10, 2028

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $4.56
Potential payout: $121.62
Potential profit: $117.06
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: $0.03

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Ends Aug 10, 2028

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.67
Potential payout: $104.96
Potential profit: $100.29
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$0.12

Antonia Ruzic position

Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $23.11
Potential payout: $53.12
Potential profit: $30.01
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $7.51

Yes position

Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $11.05
Potential payout: $52.61
Potential profit: $41.56
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $1.38

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $5.32
Potential payout: $49.05
Potential profit: $43.73
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: -$1.47

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Ends Aug 10, 2028

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $31.55
Potential profit: $30.76
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $13.04
Potential payout: $31.47
Potential profit: $18.42
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $9.39

Yes position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $6.29
Potential payout: $29.24
Potential profit: $22.95
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $1.32

No position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30?

Implied probability: 88.9%
Current value: $16.54
Potential payout: $18.6
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $6.68

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 58.9%
Current value: $9.65
Potential payout: $16.38
Potential profit: $6.73
Multiplier: 1.70x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Japan recession in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $2.36
Potential payout: $16.28
Potential profit: $13.92
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$1.65

No position

Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $13.23
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.29

Elsa Jacquemot position

Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $2.42
Potential payout: $13.86
Potential profit: $11.43
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $1.57
Potential payout: $12.54
Potential profit: $10.97
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$3.32

No position

Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $10.9
Potential payout: $11.42
Potential profit: $0.51
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $10.14
Potential profit: $9.53
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$4.36

No position

Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $3.51
Potential payout: $9.62
Potential profit: $6.11
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $5.72
Potential payout: $8.34
Potential profit: $2.63
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $1.8

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $5.53
Potential payout: $8.25
Potential profit: $2.72
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $1.75
Potential payout: $7.15
Potential profit: $5.4
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$0.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.81

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.17

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.19

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.55

Yes position

Agustín Canobbio: 1+ goals

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.23

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.72

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.1

Yes position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.96

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.49

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.03

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.15

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.96

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.7

Down position

XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.24

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET