Yes position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $79.53
- Potential payout
- $482.02
- Potential profit
- $402.49
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$31.33
Polymarket Trader
0xfea9...7a25
0xfea9cd8d714b3b267beb48d57667a92887ca7a25
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $215.71
- Realized PnL
- $72.48
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Trump meets with Putin by September 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $26.12
- Potential payout
- $348.33
- Potential profit
- $322.21
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$5.22
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $12.85
- Potential payout
- $233.65
- Potential profit
- $220.8
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$27.22
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $92.35
- Potential profit
- $92.26
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
N
No position
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $47.81
- Potential payout
- $47.83
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $24.02
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $8.05
- Potential payout
- $44.71
- Potential profit
- $36.66
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$9.2
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $4.79
- Potential payout
- $41.69
- Potential profit
- $36.9
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$4.34
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $9.44
- Potential payout
- $20.08
- Potential profit
- $10.64
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $7.57
- Potential payout
- $13.06
- Potential profit
- $5.49
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- $1.18
Yes position
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $10.3
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
Ends Apr 23, 2027- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $9.13
- Potential payout
- $9.98
- Potential profit
- $0.85
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $6.59
Yes position
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $0.58
- Potential payout
- $9.81
- Potential profit
- $9.23
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $2.12
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $6.21
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $5.4
- Potential profit
- $5.36
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Y
Yes position
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.6%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $4.14
- Potential profit
- $3.58
- Multiplier
- 7.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Yes position
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $4.03
- Potential profit
- $3.28
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $3.24
- Potential payout
- $3.83
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $2.33
- Potential payout
- $2.5
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $22.41
Yes position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.44
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $8.1
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.26
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.01
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.33
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.34
No position
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.77
Egypt position
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.05
No position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.24
No position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.44
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Japan position
Spread: Japan (-1.5)
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.67
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceEgypt 82% 6.62 shares
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?Yes 22% 28.08 shares
- Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No 33.2% 51.2 shares
- Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?No 12.3% 24 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Yes 24% 29.05 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Yes 29% 4.2 shares
- Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July?Yes 96% 1.7 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 41% 11.47 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No 56% 9.59 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No 29% 28.81 shares
- Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes 8.5% 5.52 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?No 20% 20.16 shares