Polymarket Trader

alpacatrade

0xfeeef4a740e3b3338f0a99c6fe824bef82c30118

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.22K
Realized PnL: $1.47K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $992.07
Potential profit: $992.07
User PnL: -$534.95

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $322.63
Potential payout: $419
Potential profit: $96.37
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$66.96

Yes position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $135
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$87

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.9%
Current value: $159.8
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $40.2
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $23.2

Yes position

Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $200
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $30.2

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $154.58
Potential payout: $155.28
Potential profit: $0.7
User PnL: $2.41

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $90.75
Potential payout: $109.99
Potential profit: $19.25
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $12.45

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $99.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $6.45

No position

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.4%
Current value: $50.44
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $49.56
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$1.56

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $10.88
Potential payout: $80.58
Potential profit: $69.7
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$8.53

Yes position

Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $55.14
Potential profit: $54.64
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$38.1

Yes position

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.25
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.9
Potential profit: $37.9
User PnL: -$4.28

No position

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $29.7
Potential payout: $29.79
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $1.7

No position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $7.79
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $12.21
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: $5.93

Anthropic position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $12.38
Potential payout: $16.84
Potential profit: $4.46
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$1.35

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $13.37
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $701.97

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.32

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.2

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.35

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.6

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.5

No position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $13.5

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.6

No position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.09

Yes position

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.9

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.4

Yes position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.39

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $9

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.82

No position

Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.03

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.4

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.16

Yes position

Will Sophie Baek get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Yes 76% 200 shares
Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Yes 93% 419 shares
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Yes 99.7% 499.99 shares
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

No 98% 155.28 shares
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Yes 24.1% 80.58 shares
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Anthropic 81.5% 16.84 shares
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Yes 73% 69 shares
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?

Yes 84.9% 200 shares
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?

No 98.4% 94.21 shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 68.3% 200 shares
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 96.6% 50 shares
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Yes 98.7% 694.77 shares