Polymarket Trader

kaioshin

@kaioshinairdrop

0xff99bac9cfa7e74d961a48347b77fc24d4bbcf54

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $35.37
Realized PnL: $244.63
Win rate: 79.2%
Open positions: 16
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $312.5
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

USDT depeg in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $227.27
Potential profit: $227.27
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 14?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $171.91
Potential profit: $171.91
User PnL: -$25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $170.45
Potential profit: $170.45
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 29?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150.16
Potential profit: $150.16
User PnL: -$76.58

Yes position

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.06
Potential profit: $147.06
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $33.75
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $91.25
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$66.25

Yes position

Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80.38
Potential profit: $80.38
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 10 2025?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.94
Potential profit: $37.94
User PnL: -$6.45

Yes position

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.83
Potential profit: $28.83
User PnL: -$3.46

Yes position

Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.52
Potential profit: $9.52
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.79
Potential profit: $6.79
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $1.62
Potential payout: $2.63
Potential profit: $1.01
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$0.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.34

No position

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.49

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.89

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

Yes position

Will Phantom launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Down 8% 312.5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Up 60% 16.67 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Up 69% 14.49 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

Down 34% 29.41 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Up 58.7% 8.52 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Down 6.3% 79.92 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Down 30% 33.33 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

Up 38% 26.32 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Up 91% 10.99 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Down 47% 31.91 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

Up 4% 125 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

Up 55% 45.45 shares