No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $4.26K
- Potential payout
- $5.04K
- Potential profit
- $781.81
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $819.18
Polymarket Trader
BloodyMummer
@b_mummer
0xffb0b9b292e406fd250854a35a0c9bd5612afa37
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $25.51K
- Realized PnL
- $24.56K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $2.99K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- User PnL
- $172.5
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $2.85K
- Potential payout
- $2.88K
- Potential profit
- $31.71
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $684.69
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $170
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.33K
- Multiplier
- 14.71x
- User PnL
- -$16.5
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $2.36K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $136.25
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $561.75
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $1.56K
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $670.25
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- $262.25
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $1.85K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $150
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $370
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $1.73K
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $15.71
- User PnL
- $500.48
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- User PnL
- -$1.04K
No position
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $1.13K
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $199.76
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $34.96
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $989.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $69.5
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.1%
- Current value
- $950.93
- Potential payout
- $999.93
- Potential profit
- $49
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $100.99
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.1%
- Current value
- $185
- Potential payout
- $922.71
- Potential profit
- $737.7
- Multiplier
- 4.99x
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $854.32
- Potential payout
- $908.37
- Potential profit
- $54.05
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $76.15
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $710.51
- Potential payout
- $798.33
- Potential profit
- $87.82
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $99.99
No position
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $758.65
- Potential payout
- $770.99
- Potential profit
- $12.34
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $34.28
No position
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $659.6
- Potential payout
- $705.46
- Potential profit
- $45.85
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $589.05
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $517.36
- Potential payout
- $654.89
- Potential profit
- $137.53
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $10.58
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $267.5
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $232.5
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $57.5
No position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $477.75
- Potential payout
- $481.36
- Potential profit
- $3.61
- User PnL
- $150.51
Y
Yes position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $49.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $250.5
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $170.12
- Potential payout
- $180.31
- Potential profit
- $10.19
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.02K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
No position
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
No position
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $900.79
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $797.73
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $789.22
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $779.11
No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $761.56
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $728.12
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $703.2
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $696.12
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $693.97
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $668.1
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $658.3
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $650.65
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $640.8
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $613.48
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $608.12
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?No 24% 24.27 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?No 33.3% 17 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?No 30% 400 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?No 52% 325.41 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?No 36.4% 375 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?No 61.2% 366.3 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No 95% 302.78 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 74% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 80.4% 3,865.83 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 98% 1,766.3 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 96% 369.71 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes 99.6% 1,118.74 shares