WGainfulInsight

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $51.84
Potential payout: $192
Potential profit: $140.16
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$3.84

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $65.87
Potential payout: $117.63
Potential profit: $51.76
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$7.06

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $54.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $45.5
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $32.5
Potential payout: $52
Potential profit: $19.5
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$2.34

No position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $38.51
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $12.49
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0.77

No position

Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $21
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $19
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$3.8

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $13.43
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $20.57
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$2.89

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $14.56
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $13.44
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: -$1.68

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $16.07
Potential payout: $27.01
Potential profit: $10.94
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $24.96
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $2.04
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $16.51
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $9.49
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $12.63
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $12.38
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$1.13

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $11.4
Potential payout: $24
Potential profit: $12.6
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$1.8

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $15.36
Potential payout: $24
Potential profit: $8.64
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $2.58
Potential payout: $19.82
Potential profit: $17.24
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $5.74
Potential payout: $12.08
Potential profit: $6.34
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$1.75

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $12.07
Potential profit: $11.99
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$1.88

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $6.79
Potential payout: $9.98
Potential profit: $3.19
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $9.26
Potential profit: $8.2
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $5.2
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $6.3
Potential profit: $6.11
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$0.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 66.8%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $5.21
Potential profit: $1.73
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.93
Potential profit: $4.93
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $4.2
Potential profit: $4.16
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 23%
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.74

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.62

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $0.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27?