Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $49.5
- Potential payout
- $309.35
- Potential profit
- $259.85
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- $0
Polymarket Trader
0xfffe...8016
0xfffee360ceacb65fae1dd3d3e407cbb9f44f8016
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $223.35
- Realized PnL
- -$10.31
- Win rate
- 41.7%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $173.56
- Potential payout
- $191.78
- Potential profit
- $18.22
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $120.76
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120.64
- Potential profit
- $120.64
- User PnL
- -$43.43
No position
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.29
- Potential payout
- $21.78
- Potential profit
- $21.49
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$7.11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.4
No position
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.24
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $13.24
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.28
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.2
Yes position
Vanta IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $5.35
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 56%
- Multiplier
- 1.79x
- User PnL
- $3.98
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.43
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$5.51
Yes position
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$6.56
Yes position
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-04-11?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$6.82
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$9.11
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.57
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$9.9
No position
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.26
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.67
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 36% 120.64 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes 7.8% 610.52 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes 10% 19 shares
- Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes 11.7% 836 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 35% 171.25 shares
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?No 33.2% 49.86 shares
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?No 33.8% 122 shares
- Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?No 34% 21.78 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 28% 51 shares
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Yes 14% 252.37 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 26% 44.91 shares
- Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?No 28% 12 shares