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Top trader positions, sized for your budget

Pick an amount, scan the deals, and open the traders behind them.

Top 10 PnL on this page $343.7 TECH · DAY · PnL sorted

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DAY WEEK MONTH ALL PnL Volume

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Best Deal To Inspect First

Top trader-backed deals

Modeled from $100

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $40.9
Potential payout: $908.85
Potential profit: $867.95
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $7.21

If you invest $100 $2.22K back +$2.12K estimated profit if it wins

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $161.36
Potential payout: $949.19
Potential profit: $787.83
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $89.91

If you invest $100 $588.24 back +$488.24 estimated profit if it wins

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $30.17
Potential payout: $194.62
Potential profit: $164.45
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$67.35

If you invest $100 $645.16 back +$545.16 estimated profit if it wins

Top Traders

TECH leaderboard

Updated 5:35 AM

PnL: $36.51
Volume: $102.72
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $43.58
Potential payout: $223.48
Potential profit: $179.9
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $41.83

If you invest $100 $512.82 back +$412.82 estimated profit if it wins

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $40.9
Potential payout: $908.85
Potential profit: $867.95
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $7.21

If you invest $100 $2.22K back +$2.12K estimated profit if it wins

PnL: $36.5
Volume: $0
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 1

Yes position

Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220.78
Potential profit: $220.78
User PnL: -$24.07

PnL: $36.25
Volume: $0
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $30.17
Potential payout: $194.62
Potential profit: $164.45
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$67.35

If you invest $100 $645.16 back +$545.16 estimated profit if it wins

No position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $25.2
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $19.8
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$2.05

If you invest $100 $178.57 back +$78.57 estimated profit if it wins

PnL: $35.67
Volume: $0
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 1

PnL: $34.75
Volume: $0
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $170.56
Potential payout: $215.89
Potential profit: $45.34
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $89.36

If you invest $100 $126.58 back +$26.58 estimated profit if it wins

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $162.98
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $37.02
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $65

If you invest $100 $122.71 back +$22.71 estimated profit if it wins

PnL: $34.49
Volume: $678.82
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3

Yes position

Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $393.09
Potential payout: $424.96
Potential profit: $31.87
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $97.35

If you invest $100 $108.11 back +$8.11 estimated profit if it wins

Yes position

Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $350.35
Potential payout: $378.76
Potential profit: $28.41
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.87

If you invest $100 $108.11 back +$8.11 estimated profit if it wins

PnL: $32.77
Volume: $0
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3

No position

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $314.25
Potential payout: $374.1
Potential profit: $59.86
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $5.27

If you invest $100 $119.05 back +$19.05 estimated profit if it wins

No position

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $297
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $153
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $63

If you invest $100 $151.52 back +$51.52 estimated profit if it wins

PnL: $32.49
Volume: $0
Open positions: 1

PnL: $32.27
Volume: $0
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $61.25
Potential payout: $62.92
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.24

If you invest $100 $102.72 back +$2.72 estimated profit if it wins

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $38.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $11.25
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$0.25

If you invest $100 $129.03 back +$29.03 estimated profit if it wins

PnL: $31.98
Volume: $361.5
Win rate: 17.6%
Open positions: 1

PnL: $31.13
Volume: $0
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3

No position

Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $384.37
Potential payout: $387.27
Potential profit: $2.9
User PnL: $36.8

If you invest $100 $100.76 back +$0.76 estimated profit if it wins

No position

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $345.77
Potential payout: $355
Potential profit: $9.23
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $15.67

If you invest $100 $102.67 back +$2.67 estimated profit if it wins

PnL: $30.64
Volume: $0
Open positions: 1

More Signals

Other positions top users are holding

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $329.55
Potential payout: $350.02
Potential profit: $20.48
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $106.02

If you invest $100 $106.21 back +$6.21 estimated profit if it wins

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $319.22
Potential payout: $431.38
Potential profit: $112.16
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $37.43

If you invest $100 $135.14 back +$35.14 estimated profit if it wins

No position

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $314.25
Potential payout: $374.1
Potential profit: $59.86
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $5.27

If you invest $100 $119.05 back +$19.05 estimated profit if it wins

No position

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $297
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $153
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $63

If you invest $100 $151.52 back +$51.52 estimated profit if it wins

No position

Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $291.42
Potential payout: $362.01
Potential profit: $70.59
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $47.57

If you invest $100 $124.22 back +$24.22 estimated profit if it wins

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $170.56
Potential payout: $215.89
Potential profit: $45.34
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $89.36

If you invest $100 $126.58 back +$26.58 estimated profit if it wins

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